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| 产业结构升级会降低碳排放强度吗？ — —基于绿色税收视角的考察 |
| Will Industrial Structure Upgrading Reduce Carbon Emission Intensity: Investigation from the Perspective of Green Tax |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 产业结构升级 碳排放强度 绿色税收 空间特征 门槛效应 |
| 英文关键词:Upgrading Industrial Structure Carbon Emission Intensity Green Tax Spatial Effects Threshold effect |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“适度人口视角下大型城市人口规模的超载识别与容量提升”(72104046)；东北财经大学校级科研项目“中国城市能源生态效率测度及影响因素研究”(DUFE202117) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| “双碳”目标下，研究产业结构升级与碳减排有利于实现绿色低碳可持续发展。本文建立理论分析框架，基于2006-2020年全国省级面板数据，分析并实证检验绿色税收视角下产业结构升级对碳排放强度的影响。研究发现：省际碳排放强度具有显著的空间自相关性，邻近区域之间存在互相影响的可能；产业结构升级通过直接效应与经济效应、技术效应的间接效应抑制碳排放强度；本地区产业结构合理化对降低碳排放强度存在地区内溢出效应和空间溢出效应，若不考虑空间溢出效应，会高估产业结构合理化对碳排放强度的影响；产业结构升级对碳排放强度的影响在绿色税收的调节下存在时空异质性；绿色税收强度存在单一门槛特征，门槛值为0.3998%，当超过门槛值，绿色税收强度显著抑制产业结构升级的碳减排效应；绿色税收强度处于门槛值内的省市区数量，在2018年突增，2018年排污费改征环境保护税显著增强了产业结构升级的碳减排效应。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| With the goal of "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality", studying the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction is conducive to achieving green and low-carbon sustainable development. This paper establishes a theoretical analysis framework to analyze and empirically test the impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity from the perspective of green taxation based on national provincial panel data from 2006 to 2020. Research shows that: The provincial carbon emission intensity is spatially auto-correlated, and the nearby regions interact with each other, so there is possibility of pollution diffusion; Upgrading industrial structure suppresses carbon emission intensity through economic, structural and technological effects; There are intra-regional spillover effects and spatial spillover effects on the industrial structure rationalization in one region to reduce carbon emission intensity, and the impact of industrial structure rationalization on carbon emission intensity will be overestimated if the spatial spillover effects are not considered; Large spatial and temporal differences in the impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity moderated by green tax; There is a threshold characteristic of green tax intensity, which is 0.3998%. When green tax intensity exceeds the threshold, it dramatically inhibits the carbon emission reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading. And there are large spatial and temporal differences in the moderating effect of green taxes on carbon emission intensity in industrial structure upgrading; The number of provinces and regions whose green tax intensity is under the threshold increased sharply in 2018. This strengthens the carbon reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading. |
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