张峰,高雅鲁.黄河流域隐含碳与增加值流动特征及驱动因素[J].中国环境管理,2026,18(3):123-136.
ZHANG Feng,GAO Yalu.Characteristic and Driving Factors of Embodied Carbon and ValueAdded Flows in the Yellow River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2026,18(3):123-136. |
| 黄河流域隐含碳与增加值流动特征及驱动因素 |
| Characteristic and Driving Factors of Embodied Carbon and ValueAdded Flows in the Yellow River Basin |
| DOI：10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2026.03.123 |
| 中文关键词: 黄河流域 隐含碳 增加值 流动特征 驱动因素 |
| 英文关键词:Yellow River Basin embodied carbon value added flow patterns driving factors |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“移民迁建背景下黄河下游滩区三生空间冲突的演变逻辑及消减机制研究”（23CGL076）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 控制隐含碳排放既是遵循黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的内在要求，也是推动全国系统性碳减排的重要杠杆。本文基于多区域投入产出模型，揭示2012—2020年黄河流域上中下游之间隐含碳与增加值的跨区域流动特征，结合SDA-LMDI法识别其驱动机制，同时引入碳—值比衡量二者的协同关系。结果表明：隐含碳与增加值流动呈现显著的错位汇聚特征，整体向中游地区集聚，上游地区长期表现为高隐含碳输出与低增加值获取的非对称格局，隐含碳输出由2012年的16.5万吨增至2020年的42万吨，增幅达154.5%。隐含碳转移路径具有明显的行业集中性，主要集中于电力与热力生产及高耗能制造业。消费需求扩张是推动隐含碳与增加值增长的核心动力，其中固定资本形成贡献最为突出，最高达6.5万吨。而抑制因素则由前期的碳系数和增加值系数主导，逐步转向直接消耗系数。黄河流域环境成本与经济收益的空间错配特征明显，应加快完善区域分工与碳责任分担机制。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Controlling embodied carbon emissions is not only an inherent requirement for advancing the ecological protection and highquality development of the Yellow River Basin, but also an important lever for promoting systematic carbon emission reduction nationwide. Based on a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model, this study reveals the interregional flow patterns of embodied carbon and value added across the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2020. It further employs the SDA-LMDI approach to identify the driving mechanisms, and introduces a carbon–value ratio to assess the synergy between the two. The results indicate that the flows of embodied carbon and value added exhibit a pronounced mismatched convergence pattern, with an overall concentration in the middle reaches. The upper reaches show a long-term asymmetric pattern characterized by high embodied carbon outflows and low valueadded gains, with embodied carbon outflows increased from 165,000 tons in 2012 to 420,000 tons in 2020, representing an increase of 154.5%. The transfer pathways of embodied carbon exhibit a clear sectoral concentration, primarily in the electricity and heat production sector and energy-intensive manufacturing industries. The expansion of consumption demand is the primary driver promoting the growth of both embodied carbon and value added, among which gross fixed capital formation makes the most prominent contribution, reaching up to 65,000 tons. Meanwhile, the dominant inhibiting factors shift from the carbon coefficient and value-added coefficient in the earlier stage to direct consumption coefficient. The Yellow River Basin shows a clear spatial mismatch between environmental costs and economic benefits, calling for accelerated improvement of regional specialization and carbon-sharing mechanisms. |
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