韩宇飞,吴凤平,李芳,等.“双碳”目标下中国省际可再生能源配额两阶段分配模型[J].中国环境管理,2026,18(3):77-89.
HAN Yufei,WU Fengping,LI Fang,et al.A Two-Stage Provincial Allocation Model for Renewable Energy Quotas in China under the “Dual-Carbon” Goals[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2026,18(3):77-89. |
| “双碳”目标下中国省际可再生能源配额两阶段分配模型 |
| A Two-Stage Provincial Allocation Model for Renewable Energy Quotas in China under the “Dual-Carbon” Goals |
| DOI：10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2026.03.077 |
| 中文关键词: 可再生能源 “双碳”目标 配额分配 能源三难困境 DEA模型 |
| 英文关键词:renewable energy dual-carbon goals quota allocation energy trilemma DEA model |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金青年项目“碳转移视域下我国省际碳补偿机制研究”（22CJY031）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 科学分配可再生能源配额是推动可再生能源利用的重要政策工具。针对现有配额分配中责任不匹配和效率偏低的问题，本文从责任与效率耦合视角，构建了省际可再生能源配额两阶段分配模型。模型第一阶段基于能源三难困境理论，从能源安全、能源公平与环境可持续性三个维度构建可再生能源消纳的责任评估指标体系，采用熵值法测算各省份责任系数并形成初始分配方案；第二阶段引入零和博弈—数据包络分析（ZSG-DEA）模型，建立责任—效率耦合的优化分配机制，对初始方案进行优化调整，形成效率优化的配额分配方案作为最终结果。结果表明：可再生能源配额在省际层面存在显著差异，且与能源三难困境的核心维度密切相关；将配额分配向高效率、高责任地区倾斜，可以提高整体能源系统效率； 2030年，经济发达和清洁能源资源丰富的地区需要分配较多配额，而资源禀赋差和能源需求量低的地区需分配较少配额。此外，为解决可再生能源消纳的区域失衡问题，要求东部地区提高消纳责任，实现消纳责任由西向东转移。本研究不仅为可再生能源配额分配提供科学方法，也为区域协调发展和“双碳”目标实现提供决策参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Scientific allocation of renewable energy quotas is an important policy instrument for promoting renewable energy utilization. To address the issues of mismatched responsibility and low efficiency in existing quota allocation schemes, this study develops a two-stage provincial renewable energy quota allocation model from the perspective of coupling responsibility and efficiency. In the first stage, based on the energy trilemma theory, a responsibility evaluation index system for renewable energy consumption is constructed from three dimensions: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. The entropy method is employed to estimate provincial responsibility coefficients and generate an initial allocation scheme. In the second stage, a zero-sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model is introduced to establish a responsibility–efficiency coupled optimization mechanism, which adjusts the initial allocation to obtain an efficiency-optimized quota distribution as the final result. The results show significant interprovincial differences in renewable energy quotas, which are closely related to the core dimensions of the energy trilemma. Allocating quotas toward regions with higher efficiency and greater responsibility can effectively improve the overall performance of the energy system. By 2030, economically developed regions and those with abundant clean energy resources are expected to undertake higher quotas, while regions with limited resource endowments and low energy demand are allocated lower quotas. Furthermore, to address regional imbalances in renewable energy consumption, eastern regions are required to assume greater consumption responsibilities, facilitating a gradual transfer of responsibility from western to eastern regions. This study not only provides a scientific approach for renewable energy quota allocation, but also offers policy insights for regional coordinated development and achieving the “dual-carbon” goals. |
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