高鹏,岳中刚.碳边境调节机制对中国出口产品部门的冲击效应及应对[J].中国环境管理,2026,18(3):60-69.
GAO Peng,YUE Zhonggang.Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Export Product Sectors and Policy Responses[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2026,18(3):60-69. |
| 碳边境调节机制对中国出口产品部门的冲击效应及应对 |
| Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Export Product Sectors and Policy Responses |
| DOI：10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2026.03.060 |
| 中文关键词: 碳边境调节机制 出口产品部门 冲击效应 全球价值链竞争力 生产链条 |
| 英文关键词:Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism export product sectors impact assessment global value chain competitiveness production chain |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“碳边境调节机制对中国出口产品部门的冲击效应及应对策略研究”（24YJC790046）；全国统计科学研究优选项目“CBAM约束下中欧贸易隐含碳排放核算及转移网络研究”（2025LY022）；国家社会科学基金一般项目“新发展格局下数字平台赋能传统产业集群价值链升级研究”（23BJL078）；江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“新发展格局下数字平台赋能江苏专精特新企业价值链升级研究”（2023SJZD067）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 碳边境调节机制（CBAM）作为欧盟向进口产品征税的碳定价工具，将对中国出口产品部门产生深刻影响。本文构建以碳排放强度和贸易弹性为核心的CBAM冲击效应评估模型，并在基准情景、税率增加情景、CBAM拓展情景及低碳技术突破情景下，系统测算CBAM对中国出口产品加价率、出口额减少量和减少幅度的影响。研究表明：①CBAM对金属冶炼及其制品业，化学及其制品业，以及石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业等高碳密集型部门产生较大冲击效应。②碳差价扩大、征税范围延伸及CBAM拓展将强化冲击效应。③低碳技术突破能够从源头上降低碳排放强度，显著缓解碳边境调节税压力。④提升全球价值链竞争力与追踪生产链条是应对CBAM冲击的有效途径。本文可为有效应对CBAM冲击、扩大高水平对外开放及提升气候治理话语权提供参考借鉴。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a carbon pricing instrument by which the European Union imposes carbon costs on imported products, is expected to exert substantial impacts on China’s export sectors. This paper develops an analytical framework to evaluate the effects of CBAM, with carbon emission intensity and trade elasticity as key parameters. Four counterfactual scenarios are considered, including the baseline scenario, increased carbon price scenario, expanded CBAM alliance scenario, and low-carbon technological breakthrough scenario. Under these settings, this study systematically quantif ies the impacts of CBAM on the markup rate, reduction amount, and reduction rate of China’s exports. The results indicate that: first, carbon-intensive sectors, including metal smelting and fabricated metal products, chemicals and chemical products, processing of petroleum, coal and other fuels, are disproportionately affected. Second, a widening carbon price gap, extension of the tax scope, and expansion of the CBAM participation significantly amplify the adverse impacts. Third, advancements in low-carbon technologies mitigate these effects by reducing carbon intensity at the source, significantly alleviating the pressure of carbon border taxes. Fourth, enhancing global value chain competitiveness and improving supply chain traceability constitute effective strategies to cope with CBAM-induced shocks.This study can serve as a reference for effectively addressing the impact of CBAM, expanding high-standard opening-up, and strengthening discourse power in climate governance. |
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